E3 2009 is over and hundreds of marketing people are writing up their show summaries, each one trying to show how their product or company dominated the show (been there, done that). Certainly, Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo expended a lot of effort and no little sum of money trying to show through press conferences, booths, interviews, videos, etc. that each of their respective consoles was the ‘bestest with the mostest’. (There were also handheld-related announcements but we’re focusing on consoles for now.)

"Pick me!" "No, pick me!"

Microsoft made the most announcements and showed they were serious about going after Nintendo. Sony has the best pure technology in their system and continued to posit they were the best company to bet on in the long term of their ‘ten year plan.’ And Nintendo has the best market share and, while not wowing anyone at the show, continued to execute on what they do best while preparing to sell into their huge existing audience with technology that requires no major change on the part of their customers and will be packaged with software that is almost guaranteed to be a major hit.

Does the last sentence of the preceding paragraph reveal too much about which company Concepticate thought ‘won’ E3 2009 no matter what industry insiders and the press said? Regardless, we’ll look at the strengths and weaknesses of each system following the show.

Microsoft

Strengths:

• First console to announce 3D camera controller for full body motion gaming
• #2 installed base
• Had a great combined weight of announcements–exclusives, technology, new games–that got the most buzz during the show
• Best combination of online features

Weaknesses:

• Have to prove that Project Natal is a good fit with installed base
• Selling a new gaming paradigm for console play
• Project Natal is only a good fit with certain game genres
• Best online features require paid Gold membership

Unknowns:

• Price point and ship date, as well as final name and marketing strategy for Natal
• What software will be packaged with Natal to sell it

Sony

Strengths:

• Possible the most accurate technology
• Even though a tech demo, running software looked tight and gaming applications very, um applicable
• Core technology is undeniably strong and PS2 is proof they can execute a 10 year plan–don’t hear much about Xbox 1 software sales, do you?
• Free online features

Weaknesses:

• #3 installed base
• Technology requires a PS Eye Toy camera and essentially seems like Wii Motion Plus controller with greater accuracy
• Highest price of any console

Unknowns:

• Price point and software shipped with new controller, as well as its name and positioning (they did say it would ship in Spring 2010)
• What their killer app will be for the controller

Nintendo

Strengths:

• #1 installed base
• Tech is proven great fit with existing customer base
• Killer app for tech is already proven (c.f., Wii Sports)

Weaknesses:

• Least amount of new news gave perception they were resting on their laurels
• Weakest tech of any of the big 3 could slow sales in coming years
• Perception among hardcore gamers is lowest of big 3

Unknowns:

• Can Microsoft and Sony steal customers from Wii by adding new ways to play to their technologically superior systems?

One announcement that gamers, publishers, and analysts were all hoping for was a price drop–but none of the manufacturers announced a change in their price point. Nintendo could drop their price if they felt threatened since their SKU is the most profitable per unit, but they don’t feel threatened. Sony is pushing for greater profitability so as much as analysts would love to see $100 drop (and their sales would certainly benefit!) it’s not happening in the near term. And Microsoft has already come out with the lower-priced Arcade SKU so they feel they’ve addressed price by creating a lower-featured model although we haven’t seen the Arcade flying off shelves.

Sans a price drop, Wii continues to lead in sales and we don’t see this changing anytime soon. It remains to be seen what a bundled Xbox 360 or PS3 with a motion control system will cost but unless they are sold at a loss they won’t be cheaper than a Wii, which includes a motion controller in the core SKU, and presumably by the time Natal or the Sony product ships Nintendo will be shipping Motion Plus bundled with every new Wii.

Finally, and this can’t be understated, the killer app for Motion Plus is a known quantity that is a perfect fit for the owners of the 50MM existing Wiis: Wii Sports Resort.  The Sony controller looks to work well for swordfighting, shooting, ‘mouse’ actions, and other traditional gaming gestures, and Project Natal will work great for exergames, dance games, and some sports games and casual games. But neither system has announced a killer app to beat Wii Sports Resort.

As much as core gamers continue to put down the Wii, Nintendo continues to sell millions of Wii systems week after week, month after month, expanding the demographic of console gamers with each year. Microsoft and Sony have aspirations to do the same thing, but until they show they can do it, Nintendo is still the king. Nothing that was shown at E3 did anything to change that, as exciting as it was to see the Beatles, Uncharted 2, Steven Spielberg, God of War 3, et al.

Here’s the equation:

Proven gaming quotient + largest existing audience + ’small, quiet, and affordable’ = the champ until dethroned

Having said that, we’re looking forward to someone topping Nintendo–the more the ante is upped, the better it is for gamers everywhere.

In many ways, Nintendo’s press conference felt like a reprise of their 2008 presentation: lots of Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resort, and Motion Plus as well as the continuing fact that they’re #1 on console and handheld. They had a snappy new set but otherwise you could substitute images from last year and it would be hard to tell the difference. Watch the GameSpot replay here as soon as they have it archived.

But when you’re #1 by a large margin, you don’t have to grab the gaming audience by the lapels and scream, “We’re shaking things up, and BTW, Sony and MS suck!” Instead, you can play it classy and focus on what you do best, which in Nintendo’s case involves Wii Fit, Motion Plus, Mario, Metroid, and a strong focus on fun family entertainment. Unfortunately, it didn’t involve a new Zelda game other than Spirit Tracks for DS.

Nintendo announced the new Wii Vitality Sensor, a heartrate monitor that clips to your finger, and it seems they’ll have some relaxation-oriented games to go with it when it launches. Anyway, I filed Vitality Sensor under “interesting” and we’ll see what comes of it.

The Wii Fit Plus information was all positive, with the ability to skip the annoying interludes (Yay! I love it when they fix things that should have been corrected in the original product–but nonetheless I’m grateful), online support, 15 new games including skateboarding, and the ability to customize your workouts to a greater degree. While Wii Fit sales are still strong, I’d love to see Plus come out sooner rather than later as the first wave of Wii Fit adopters is ready for something new, as we’ve seen with strong sales of even crappy products (cough, cough, Jillian Michaels) that utilize the Balance Board. It’s scheduled to ship this fall–c’mon, Nintendo, make it September for back-to-school.

Super Mario Galaxy 2 looked fun–an evolution of the first game rather than an reinvention but I’ll be looking forward to it when it ships. For the non-3D folks, there will be Super Mario Bros. for Wii, a 4-player 2D game in the classic Mario style–it looked a bit chaotic with four players, but fun. The Team Ninja + Nintendo collaboration, Metroid: Other M (2010) had good graphics and was a bone tossed to core gamers.

Metroid Mmmmm, tasty (courtesy of GameSpot)

But while Nintendo acknowledged their rep deficit with regard to core gamers, they didn’t offer up much to address it–which given their success reaching beyond that group is certainly understandable. Instead, Nintendo President Satoru Iwata discussed the three groups of gamers (as they parse the market): active gamers, non-gamers, and ‘maybe’ gamers. Their figures show 295MM actives in the US, Japan, and Europe along with 149MM ‘maybes’–who if persuaded to pick up a game could grow the gaming market by 50%.

So philosophically, Nintendo and Concepticate are aligned in terms of the best way to expand gaming–experiences with universal appeal that don’t rely on previous gaming expertise for success. Provide a fresh, fun experience and try to reduce the barriers to entry as much as possible: that’s what developers should be aiming at unless they already have a successful niche they can continue to exploit.

Rather than making games specifically designed for the more serious players from the active segment, Iwata said that Nintendo’s goal was to make games that newcomers and veterans alike could play. Amen.

Moving on to motion gaming, Wii Sports Resort was demoed in more detail, and the enthusiasm I had for the title (including the Motion Plus peripheral) was still there. It’s enough of a fresh experience to get casual Wii owners who are jaded with the games they have now–and a lot of these folks don’t buy many games–reengaged with their Wii.

Wii Sports Resort hits the bullseye?

From the skydiving intro sequence to the archery game, the gameplay that was shown looked spot on and it doesn’t take an industry analyst to predict that the game will do well. But the quality will reinforce the Nintendo brand reputation (like the original game that basically sold the Wii to 50M people) which is why people will be coming back to pay for an upgrade of a game they got ‘free’ with their system purchase (@ncroal pointed out the first hit was free, now you gotta pay for it).

The increased accuracy of the Motion Plus controller adds physics-based realism to graphics that are anything but realistic, and should allow for a higher level of skill in games that are still easy to pick up and play. The archery looked great, and when Nintendo does announce a new Zelda game for Wii, I want to see archery and sword fighting using Motion Plus in the core gameplay!

Nintendo didn’t rock the boat with their E3 presentation–they played it safe but what they had to show was right in the sweet spot for the majority of their audience even if it didn’t wow the gamers in the crowd.