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Post-E3: Ranking the Big 3
June 6th, 2009 by worldblee

E3 2009 is over and hundreds of marketing people are writing up their show summaries, each one trying to show how their product or company dominated the show (been there, done that). Certainly, Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo expended a lot of effort and no little sum of money trying to show through press conferences, booths, interviews, videos, etc. that each of their respective consoles was the ‘bestest with the mostest’. (There were also handheld-related announcements but we’re focusing on consoles for now.)

Pick me! No, pick me!

"Pick me!" "No, pick me!"

Microsoft made the most announcements and showed they were serious about going after Nintendo. Sony has the best pure technology in their system and continued to posit they were the best company to bet on in the long term of their ‘ten year plan.’ And Nintendo has the best market share and, while not wowing anyone at the show, continued to execute on what they do best while preparing to sell into their huge existing audience with technology that requires no major change on the part of their customers and will be packaged with software that is almost guaranteed to be a major hit.

Does the last sentence of the preceding paragraph reveal too much about which company Concepticate thought ‘won’ E3 2009 no matter what industry insiders and the press said? Regardless, we’ll look at the strengths and weaknesses of each system following the show.

Microsoft

Strengths:

  • First console to announce 3D camera controller for full body motion gaming
  • #2 installed base
  • Had a great combined weight of announcements–exclusives, technology, new games–that got the most buzz during the show
  • Best combination of online features

Weaknesses:

  • Have to prove that Project Natal is a good fit with installed base
  • Selling a new gaming paradigm for console play
  • Project Natal is only a good fit with certain game genres
  • Best online features require paid Gold membership

Unknowns:

  • Price point and ship date, as well as final name and marketing strategy for Natal
  • What software will be packaged with Natal to sell it

Sony

Strengths:

  • Possible the most accurate technology
  • Even though a tech demo, running software looked tight and gaming applications very, um applicable
  • Core technology is undeniably strong and PS2 is proof they can execute a 10 year plan–don’t hear much about Xbox 1 software sales, do you?
  • Free online features

Weaknesses:

  • #3 installed base
  • Technology requires a PS Eye Toy camera and essentially seems like Wii Motion Plus controller with greater accuracy
  • Highest price of any console

Unknowns:

  • Price point and software shipped with new controller, as well as its name and positioning (they did say it would ship in Spring 2010)
  • What their killer app will be for the controller

Nintendo

Strengths:

  • #1 installed base
  • Tech is proven great fit with existing customer base
  • Killer app for tech is already proven (c.f., Wii Sports)

Weaknesses:

  • Least amount of new news gave perception they were resting on their laurels
  • Weakest tech of any of the big 3 could slow sales in coming years
  • Perception among hardcore gamers is lowest of big 3

Unknowns:

  • Can Microsoft and Sony steal customers from Wii by adding new ways to play to their technologically superior systems?

One announcement that gamers, publishers, and analysts were all hoping for was a price drop–but none of the manufacturers announced a change in their price point. Nintendo could drop their price if they felt threatened since their SKU is the most profitable per unit, but they don’t feel threatened. Sony is pushing for greater profitability so as much as analysts would love to see $100 drop (and their sales would certainly benefit!) it’s not happening in the near term. And Microsoft has already come out with the lower-priced Arcade SKU so they feel they’ve addressed price by creating a lower-featured model although we haven’t seen the Arcade flying off shelves.

Sans a price drop, Wii continues to lead in sales and we don’t see this changing anytime soon. It remains to be seen what a bundled Xbox 360 or PS3 with a motion control system will cost but unless they are sold at a loss they won’t be cheaper than a Wii, which includes a motion controller in the core SKU, and presumably by the time Natal or the Sony product ships Nintendo will be shipping Motion Plus bundled with every new Wii.

Finally, and this can’t be understated, the killer app for Motion Plus is a known quantity that is a perfect fit for the owners of the 50MM existing Wiis: Wii Sports Resort.  The Sony controller looks to work well for swordfighting, shooting, ‘mouse’ actions, and other traditional gaming gestures, and Project Natal will work great for exergames, dance games, and some sports games and casual games. But neither system has announced a killer app to beat Wii Sports Resort.

As much as core gamers continue to put down the Wii, Nintendo continues to sell millions of Wii systems week after week, month after month, expanding the demographic of console gamers with each year. Microsoft and Sony have aspirations to do the same thing, but until they show they can do it, Nintendo is still the king. Nothing that was shown at E3 did anything to change that, as exciting as it was to see the Beatles, Uncharted 2, Steven Spielberg, God of War 3, et al.

Here’s the equation:

Proven gaming quotient + largest existing audience + ’small, quiet, and affordable’ = the champ until dethroned

Having said that, we’re looking forward to someone topping Nintendo–the more the ante is upped, the better it is for gamers everywhere.


4 Responses  
Mari (GenericWit) writes:
June 21st, 2009 at 11:01 am

I like the in-depth analysis, but the way I’ve always seen it is that it comes down to only a few factors. A huge one of them, as mentioned, is price. The PS3 even with their *weak* attempts at puny price drops every now and then aren’t going to satisfy their customers. They’ve already lost their fan base by having the console so damn expensive for so damn long. And what do they do? Release a lesser version at a slightly lesser price? That’s ridiculous, imo, and only served to piss me off further. Now, my PS3 was free for me as I preordered two PS3s, and I actually GOT my preorder on release date (another thing which I think many of their customers are still bitter about) so I sold them on ebay and bought myself a PS3 with the profit.

That being said, I don’t think I’d have ever bought a PS3 with my own money. The way I’ve seen it, in terms of games there’s the whole “anything you can do, I can do better” factor as seen with the 360 version of GTA IV being better than the PS3’s in terms of things like downloadable content. Sure, they’ve got exclusives, but imo, developers are better off changing their allegiance from the PS3 to the 360, and they’d see their sales increase. I wouldn’t mind seeing a FF game on 360 with lesser graphics or whatever sacrifices they’d have to make. I think they’d do better like that.

That’s why I hate Sony nowadays. But umm… not too excited about the new “controller-less play!” microsoft seems to be banking on. I get my Xbox out when I’m sick of flailing my arms around on the Wii. Well, I get it out to play games (since the xbox has better games, imo), but I really like my controller. It’s something I love and hate about the Wii, and I don’t want to see it on my box. I may be alone there, but whatever.

They should continue catering to the lazy crowd. Hehe.

And ending on price again: I really don’t see a need for a price drop on the Wii. You can buy one for under a hundred bucks on ebay, and you can easily buy a 20gb box for 160 so meh.

   
Mari (GenericWit) writes:
June 21st, 2009 at 11:05 am

Ahh one more quickie comment: Looking at the picture, I completely forgot my wii came with a stand. I don’t even know where it is. LOL.

I lay all my consoles flat naturally. The last time I had my box vertically, my dog ran over and kicked it horizontal… and RIP Need for Speed

   
worldblee writes:
June 23rd, 2009 at 11:36 am

I agree that a price break is needed for the PS3, especially in the US. Sony’s problem is that they’re trying to improve profitability and I think they’re trying to hold on for as long as possible before dropping the price. Hopefully they’ve made enough of the new PS3 SKU to reduce costs so they can do so this summer without taking a bath on each unit sold.

A good thing to remember about the Sony brand is how strong it is outside the US. If you go to Spain, South America, etc. Sony is held in higher esteem than Microsoft. I also wonder if they’re looking at their long term expansion in Europe and South America as offsetting their weakness in the US.

   
Mari (GenericWit) writes:
June 23rd, 2009 at 6:19 pm

Well, it’s not going to help their profits out if they’ve got systems on the shelves that they’re not selling.

And I had no idea that Sony is well liked in other countries. All I really know is worldwide sales, and that includes the US. Isn’t it still true that twice as many Wiis have been sold as PS3s? I remember at one point checking and seeing that 360s and ps3s combined sold less than the wii. I’m not sure how true any of that still is, especially with the availability of cheap consoles on ebay and whatnot, but I was under the impression that Xbox 360s were selling better worldwide than PS3s also.

I need to pay more attention to sales figures before I start to argue a point. Heh.

   

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